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"UK Energy Risks – Uncertain but not Unimaginable" – Global Energy Advisory

On the 23rd of February it was reported that one of the large six utility companies in the UK lost £172.5mn, in just three months, by trading a gas position. This loss could have been against a background of relatively low gas price volatility; presumably this “increase in wholesale cost” will now be passed on to end consumers? Who trades and who pays? Who invests and who pays?
The new Energy & Climate Change Committee is today taking oral evidence from the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Rt Hon Edward Miliband MP, in the House of Commons in London. The independent Global Energy Advisory White Paper entitled: Investment Failure, Fails Customers, was circulated to the Committee earlier this week.

The paper discusses the potential risks to UK energy security which are well known within the Industry. It also asks pertinent questions regarding the costs and consequences of the energy investment/trading decisions being taken at the current time.

This discussion will be continued at the Global Energy/Advisory Super Derivatives Seminar in London on March 5th – see below for full details.

Little known (or conveniently forgotten) reason for 1926 miners strike recalled – Dr Fred Starr

If no one has anything better, here is a slightly incomplete table for coal production. This has been compiled from various sources over the past few years.

Peak was 1913 when we were exporting 100 million tons at a price of around £1 per ton. This might be equivalent to £50 per ton today (or higher?).

UK coal exports began to get uncompetitive after WWI, and was one of the main reasons for the 1926 General Strike, when the coal owners wanted to reduce wages.

Coal output was insufficient in WWII (and afterwards) and was one reason for sending one in every ten

conscripted men down the mines

UK coal reserves are now given as somewhere between 400-800 million tonnes. Not the billions that everyone supposes.

If the UK energy system was totally dependent on coal, as it used to be, these would last 2-4 years.

Christophe de Margerie (no less!) agrees with Hugh Sharman's long-stated view that we are unlikely, ever, to see 90 million bopd liquids production

“Recently, OPEC cut back oil production in an attempt to stem the oil price decline. How much might their cutbacks delay the onset of world liquid fuels production decline? Assuming the plateau model and five years to the onset of decline, each million barrels per day of oil production withholding buys roughly three weeks delay, so a steady, continuing reduction of say four million barrels per day over five years might result in a delay in the onset of world oil production decline by maybe three months. Thats not very much.”

Systemic Fiscal Reform – way to beat boom and bust

By Dr Adrian Wrigley, Neale Upstone and Robin Smith (10th Sept 2008) – SystemicfiscalReform.Org

Systemic Fiscal Reform is a radical programme for the reform of taxation, subsidies and welfare. It is designed to stabilize economies, improve quality of life, and facilitates the transition to full environmental sustainability.

The reforms mainly comprise the abolition of cumbersome and wasteful tax, welfare and subsidy systems, together with abolishing the bureaucracies which implement them.

In their place, a simple integrated tax and welfare system is introduced. This includes retaining a number of existing taxes which have been found to operate effectively where they have been tried.

What is Microgeneration? And what is the most cost effective in terms of CO2 reduction

The UK Government definition of Microgeneration[1] applies to a rather surprising mix of heat and power generating technologies with a thermal output below 45kWt or an electrical output of 50kWe. It covers electrical generation from wind, solar photovoltaics (PV) and hydro, and heat generation from biomass, solar thermal and heat pumps as well as micro CHP which produces heat and power from renewable or fossil fuels. It is not just another term for small scale renewables, but comprises a portfolio of low carbon technologies.

There has been a tendency amongst advocates[2] and sceptics[3] alike to lump all Microgeneration technologies together, either as “all good” or “all bad”. This is particularly unhelpful when attempting to understand the potential contribution Microgeneration can make to UK energy strategy and it is important that we understand the particular characteristics and potential role of each technology.

The Sahara Forest Project – A new source of fresh water, food and energy

The world is running short of fresh water. With agriculture accounting for some 70% of all water

used, the water shortage is closely linked to food production and economic development. The

provision of clean water is a pre-condition to life, health and economic development and the lack

of water in many parts of the world is the root cause of much suffering and poverty. Present

methods of supplying water in arid regions include: over-abstraction from ground reserves,

diverting water from other regions and energy-intensive desalination. None of these methods are

sustainable in the long term and inequitable distribution leads to conflict. To make matters

worse, global warming is tending to make dry areas drier and wet areas wetter. Since the 1980’s,

rainfall has increased in several large regions of the world, including eastern North and South

America and northern Europe, while drying has been observed in the Sahel, the Mediterranean,

southern Africa, Australia and parts of Asia.

Where Does The Wind Come From – And How Much Is There?

Introduction: The source of the wind is the sun. The winds come from the suns energy falling on the earth’s surface. Due to the orientation of the earth’s surface to the sun’s rays near the equator the rays strike the surface at more optimum angles. The effect is that the air near the surface in tropical regions is heated more than the air near the surface of the polar regions. This leads to convection currents in the atmosphere, ie the movement of air due to changes in its density and pressure. This air movement is the principal cause of the winds.

European Super Grid – press release

At the fourth Claverton Energy conference, hosted by Wessex Water, Bath, international energy expert Dr Czisch outlined his strategy for a European-wide super grid that would supply all of Europe with entirely renewable electricity. Speaking at the conference Dr Czisch of Kassel University, Germany, also said the move to a renewable electricity system could cost the UK consumer the same as what is currently being paid, and, if there is the political will, he added that it could in theory be achieved in decades.

Where Does The Wind Come From and How Much Energy is There?

Brian Hurley, M.Sc.

2008 Conference Paper Synopsis: The source of the wind is the sun. The winds come from the suns energy falling on the earth’s surface, giving rise to heating of the atmosphere. This leads to convection currents in the atmosphere, ie the movement of air due to changes in its density and pressure. We can gain an understanding of how global circulation works by developing simplified models of the processes that produce the global system. The physical drivers of the wind at a global scale and at the level of a wind farm are examined.

Desert Rose – Fresh Water & Forest Cover

Desert Rose – Fresh Water & Forest Cover
By Dr Richard Lawson

2008 Conference Paper Synopsis: Desert Rose is a conceptual approach to using two resources – sunlight and seawater – that coastal tropical areas have in abundance to supply two resources that are in short supply and dwindling – fresh water and forest cover. It suggests that once past a critical point, the growth in forest and water tend to become a self-propagating system. Energy costings relating to developing this concept are addressed.