I would like to introduce you to the analysis Dave mentions below and point everyone to the material at www.roadmap2050.eu . Just today more of the underlying material has been added to the site for download.
The analysis examined plausible 80%-by-2050 decarbonisation pathways for Europe and then conducted a deep dive into electricity. This involved modeling the entire European electricity network and comparing scenarios of 40%, 60% and 80% renewables (and a slightly less detailed analysis of 100% renewables) – but requiring the same level of reliability as today. This was subjected to economic assessment and then a wider macro-economic analysis to assess the implications for European GDP. In particular I would draw your attention to the examination of interconnection where the work was led by Imperial College London and KEMA.
The technical analysis concludes it is possible to achieve networks for Europe across all the scenarios that are as reliable as today’s and the all-in costs of electricity that result turn out to be about the same on the basis of all the (transparently described) assumptions made. In GDP terms the impact is negligible in the short term and net beneficial in the longer term assuming the (rather conservative) WEO fossil prices.
The analysis does not aim to argue that one of these scenarios is better than another but of course if the reliability and costs are the same, other considerations can be weighted in the ‘choice’ – wider sustainability issues, industrial scaleability, market dynamics, public acceptability.
Volume 1 of the work covers the technical and economic analysis. Volume two draws policy implications from the analysis. Volume 3 is a visual representation by OMA and volume 4, out soon, is an analysis on energy efficiency. You will also find some other papers- in particular on forward capacity markets that may be of interest.
The analysis is useful from a number of dimensions and personally I find the 240-slide presentation the most useful way of digesting it all (look at volume 1 background documentation) . Others may find it useful to start from the briefs or go for the full report.
All the material is on a creative commons license – that means we are actively encouraging everyone to use it all.
European Climate Foundation
Landline +44 (0)1883 732107
Mobile +44 (0)7817 314706